End-of-Year Global Freight Trends Across Sea and Air Cargo
As the year comes to a close, the global freight industry is navigating a mix of softening demand, operational bottlenecks, and ongoing volatility. With transhipment congestion still prominent in key hubs and capacity conditions varying by region, logistics decision-makers must remain proactive and adaptive. This Freight Market Update December 2025 presents the latest insights into ocean and air freight performance, pricing trends, regional summaries, and recommendations to maintain supply chain efficiency through the December–January peak.
At a Glance: Freight Market Update December 2025
- Global demand is softening, with freight volumes below earlier forecasts across major trade lanes
- Ocean freight rates have declined slightly, with the Drewry World Container Index down 2% to USD 1,806 per 40ft container
- Schedule reliability remains inconsistent, with Singapore, North Europe, and US East Coast ports experiencing the most delays
- Carriers are implementing blank sailings and stricter schedule management to balance capacity and maintain pricing
- Air freight capacity remains tight, especially from Asia into Australia and North America, with no easing expected until mid-January 2026
- Premium air cargo services are under pressure, driven by demand for reliable transit during peak season
- Australia’s ports are facing 2–7 day delays, with Brisbane, Sydney, and Fremantle most affected by congestion and vessel bunching
- Reefer and 20-foot containers are in short supply across Australian terminals, impacting cargo planning
- US and Canada rates are stable, with open space available to Oceania and BMSB fumigation challenges emerging due to colder temperatures
- Europe faces port congestion and dwell time issues, worsened by industrial action in Belgium and a partial return to the Suez Canal route
- Asia-Pacific transhipments via Singapore remain the biggest bottleneck, affecting Australian import timelines from both North and Southeast Asia
- Chinese New Year (mid-February) will drive demand increases; early bookings and flexible planning are critical
- Manufacturing activity is cautious, and tariff adjustments have not significantly shifted global cargo volumes
- Retailers are restocking conservatively, pointing to a slow start to 2026 in terms of ocean import growth
Global Ocean Freight Conditions
Demand continues to underperform across major trade lanes, aligning with a broader economic slowdown. In response, carriers are implementing blank sailings, general rate increases, and more controlled schedule management to stabilise margins and prevent rate erosion.
Key Global Highlights:
- Transhipment pressure at Singapore remains the most persistent challenge for Australia-bound freight
- Europe and North America are facing labour shortages, port congestion, and equipment shortfalls
- Importers in Australia are seeing longer origin dwell times and inconsistent connectivity through Southeast Asia
- Space remains accessible on most routes, provided bookings are made early and there is flexibility in transit preferences
Forecast: Industry analysts expect continued weakening of the global supply-demand balance into early 2026 as Suez Canal services resume and previously idle vessels re-enter circulation.
Global Freight Rates
The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) dropped 2 percent, settling at USD 1,806 per 40-foot container. The decline is attributed to easing rates on the Transpacific and Asia–Europe trade lanes.
Global Schedule Reliability
- Schedule performance remains inconsistent, with severe disruptions at Singapore, North Europe, and US East Coast ports
- Frequent blank sailings and vessel rotation changes are distorting transit times and complicating cargo planning
- Weather-related disruptions, ongoing congestion, and container imbalances are contributing to missed connections and rolled cargo
Air Freight Market Conditions
Overview
Asia-origin airfreight continues to face tight conditions, particularly on lanes into Australia and North America. The brief post-Thanksgiving ecommerce surge into the US is tapering, but congestion at Asian export hubs remains a constraint.
Key Capacity Trends:
- Services from China, Vietnam, Korea, and parts of Southeast Asia are heavily booked
- Premium airfreight services are under pressure due to strong demand for reliable uplift windows
- Capacity relief is not expected until after mid-January 2026
Recommended Actions:
- Book 7 to 10 days ahead for time-sensitive or consolidated cargo
- Allow routing flexibility as congestion continues across key transit points
- Utilise premium services where transit reliability is essential
- Share key delivery timelines early with logistics partners to enable advanced planning
Ocean Freight: Regional Breakdown
Australia Port Summary
Australia’s ports continue to experience disruptions driven by vessel delays, port omissions, and yard congestion. These issues are expected to persist throughout December as vessels target pre-holiday and pre-Chinese New Year delivery windows.
Port-by-Port Conditions:
Brisbane
- Delays of 2 to 5 days
- Vessel bunching is placing intermittent strain on terminal operations
- Recent power outages at DP World slowed operations, though most systems have recovered
- Receival windows are available but filling quickly
Sydney
- Delays around 5 days
- High winds and vessel congestion are reducing productivity
- Residual backlog continues from recent industrial action
Melbourne
- Delays averaging 2 days
- Elevated yard density and slower truck turnarounds
- Late cargo at greater risk of being rolled
Fremantle
- Delays of 4 to 7 days
- Schedule compression from east-coast congestion is flowing downstream
- Congestion at transhipment hubs like Singapore is exacerbating local delays
Adelaide
- Delays of around 3 days
- Remains the most stable port in the country
- Most delays stem from upstream scheduling disruptions
Additional notes:
- Reefer and 20-foot container equipment remains constrained nationwide
- Rail maintenance projects in New Zealand, especially near Auckland and Tauranga, are impacting trans-Tasman efficiency
United States and Canada
Market Summary:
- North American freight demand is softening, and space availability into Oceania remains favourable
- Carriers are maintaining stable rate levels, despite a limited number of blank sailings
Rate Range:
- Low: USD 1,500 per TEU
- High: USD 2,000 per TEU
Operational Notes:
- West Coast ports are operating smoothly
- East Coast and inland hubs face intermittent congestion and longer dwell times
- Lower temperatures are making BMSB fumigation more difficult at origin, increasing the likelihood of treatment being required at transhipment hubs or destination ports
Recommended Actions:
- Confirm BMSB treatment plans early
- Include buffer time for East Coast and inland rail delays
- Prioritise urgent deliveries before January capacity constraints emerge
- Take advantage of favourable rate levels to advance time-sensitive shipments
Europe
Freight Summary:
- Congestion continues across major European ports, with dwell times rising
- Blank sailings and schedule compression remain common, especially into December
- A national strike in Belgium has worsened congestion at the Port of Antwerp
- Some carriers are returning to the Suez Canal, potentially increasing pressure on port operations and driving up spot market rates
Ocean Freight Rates:
- Budget services: USD 1,000–2,000
- Mid-tier services: USD 1,300–2,600
- Premium services: USD 1,600–3,200
Key Issues:
- Inland transport availability is limited, leading to cargo rollovers and missed transhipments
- Australia-bound freight via Singapore and Port Klang is experiencing irregular connectivity
Recommended Actions:
- Verify container equipment availability at European load ports
- Build extra lead time into planning to absorb origin congestion and inconsistent transits
- When possible, utilise carriers with more direct or protected services into Australia
Asia
North East Asia
- Export demand remains steady, with capacity constrained across most service tiers
- Transhipment congestion in Singapore continues to limit schedule flexibility
- Blank sailings and equipment repositioning strategies are delaying network recovery
- Container capacity is increasingly imbalanced due to high outbound flows from China
Rate Ranges from China to Australia:
- Budget: USD 1,300–2,600
- Mid-tier: USD 1,400–2,800
- Premium: USD 1,700–3,400
South East Asia
- Rates are stable, but reliability is impacted by regional congestion and adverse weather
- Typhoon-related delays have caused vessel omissions and scheduling issues
- Singapore remains the most significant bottleneck for Australia-bound freight
Rate Ranges from Southeast Asia:
- Budget: USD 900–1,800
- Mid-tier: USD 1,100–2,200
- Premium: USD 1,300–2,600
Recommended Actions:
- Share your December and January shutdown periods in advance
- Secure uplift early for shipments required ahead of Chinese New Year (mid-February)
- Plan delivery schedules early, especially for inventory-critical products
- Stay flexible on routing and service tiers due to frequent congestion and equipment shortages
- Coordinate with transport partners to ensure alignment between uplift, transhipment, and final delivery dates
Final Message for December
From everyone at TFG Global, thank you for your continued trust and partnership throughout 2025. We appreciate the opportunity to support your logistics needs and look forward to working with you in the year ahead.
Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a safe, successful start to 2026.
Conclusion: Planning with Precision as 2025 Closes
The December 2025 freight landscape is defined by a complex mix of softening demand and persistent operational disruption. While global rates have moderated and space remains largely accessible, key infrastructure and capacity constraints—particularly in Singapore, across European and North American ports, and throughout key transhipment hubs in Asia—continue to challenge schedule reliability.
Shippers moving freight into or out of Australia must navigate port congestion, rolling delays, and equipment shortages. Meanwhile, tight conditions in air freight, especially from Northeast and Southeast Asia, underscore the importance of early booking and route flexibility. Across all regions, the approach of Chinese New Year will soon begin to compress available capacity further.
For businesses planning their final shipments of 2025 and preparing for Q1 2026, success will depend on accurate forecasting, proactive scheduling, and close coordination with supply chain partners. From blank sailings and fluctuating dwell times to weather-related disruptions and compliance hurdles like BMSB treatment, every stage of the journey requires strategic oversight.
TFG Global will continue to monitor regional developments and provide timely updates to help our clients stay agile in a shifting global trade environment.
We thank all of our customers, carriers, and partners for your continued trust in 2025, and we wish you a Merry Christmas and a safe, successful start to 2026.
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