Welcome to TFG Global’s Freight Market Trends March 2025 update. As global trade adapts to shifting demand and evolving geopolitical tensions, we’re seeing significant adjustments in sea freight rates, vessel capacity, and schedule reliability. From Europe’s ongoing port strikes to falling rates across Asia and North America, this month presents critical insights for shippers and logistics professionals. Whether you’re managing transpacific shipments or monitoring European port disruptions, our comprehensive update will help you navigate the complexities ahead. Read on for an in-depth look at the latest developments.
Europe Freight Market Overview
Rates
Freight rates on the Far East Westbound (FEWB) trade lane continued their downward trend in March 2025. Spot rates from Shanghai to Genoa decreased by 2%, down $90 to $3,747 per 40-foot container. Similarly, rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Rotterdam to New York both slipped by 1%, now sitting at $2,586 and $2,374 per 40-foot container, respectively.
Exports from Europe to Australia remain stable, with OOCL and Cosco providing the most competitive offers, ranging between $900 and $1,000 per TEU.
Capacity
Despite a ceasefire in the Middle East, vessel operators are hesitant to resume transits through the Suez Canal. Since mid-January, fewer than 45 container ships have passed through weekly, and 77.6% of these were sub-Panamax vessels under 4,000 TEUs. Megamax vessels with capacities above 18,000 TEUs remain absent from the Suez Canal—a situation that’s persisted for nearly a year.
Capacity on the FEWB trade is forecasted to decline steadily from week 10 onward, in response to consistently weak demand. Carriers have scheduled additional blank sailings throughout March. MSC is reallocating its megamax class vessels (ranging from 19,200 to 24,300 TEUs) from Far East–Northern Europe services to more profitable routes such as the Far East–Mediterranean and Asia–West Africa corridors, where spot rates are strengthening.
Schedule Reliability
Rotterdam port operations are similarly disrupted by strikes, with terminal productivity reportedly reduced to 50% of normal capacity. These delays are impacting vessel, rail, and truck movements, with further actions planned by dockworker unions. Cargo diversions to Antwerp are adding pressure, and emergency measures have been implemented due to severe congestion. Current waiting times at the Port of Antwerp are estimated at 84 hours.
Labor strikes at major French ports are causing severe delays and yard congestion. Unions have announced an aggressive strike schedule for March, including a 72-hour shutdown from March 18-20 and shorter walkouts on March 4, 6, 10, 12, 14, 24, 26, and 28. Overtime and extra shifts will also be affected. Le Havre and Marseille-Fos terminals have experienced four-hour stoppages almost every two days.
Asia Freight Market Update
Rates
Northeast Asian freight rates have experienced significant declines over the past several weeks. Carriers are competing for bookings, causing rates to fluctuate almost daily.
- Ports such as Shekou, Nansha, Ningbo, Qingdao, Shanghai, and Yantian are now offering rates around $425 per TEU on NEAX services (HMM/EMC/ONE).
- CAT/CA2 services (EMC/PIL/YML/SNL) are slightly higher at $475 per TEU, except in Southern China, where rates align with NEAX levels.
- Premium services like A3/JKN (Cosco/OOCL/ANL) are priced at $625 per TEU.
- OOCL and ANL have both announced General Rate Increases (GRIs) of $300 per TEU, effective March 15, potentially raising rates to $950–$1,000 per TEU.
- MSC’s proposed $500 per TEU GRI has not materialized due to insufficient demand.
Capacity
Carriers are initiating aggressive capacity cuts to rebalance supply and demand.
TS Lines is reducing vessel sizes starting in April, having already withdrawn 4,000 TEUs from service in the second half of March.
COSCO idled two 6,000 TEU vessels during the same period.
Blank sailings from China are increasing, tightening available capacity as carriers attempt to support future rate increases.
Port congestion has worsened due to bad weather and fog, leading to berthing delays at Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao. Singapore and Busan are also experiencing delays, with a heavy influx of inbound vessels further straining operations.
USA & Canada Freight Market Update
Rates
Rates on the Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) routes are under significant pressure post-Chinese New Year, reflecting weak demand.
- Shanghai to Los Angeles rates dropped 11%, or $411, to $3,477 per 40-foot container.
- Shanghai to New York rates fell 10%, or $533, to $4,593 per 40-foot container.
- Export rates from the USA to Australia have remained steady, with shipments from Los Angeles to Australia East Coast (AUEC) priced between $2,700 and $3,000 per FEU.
Capacity
There is currently ample space on TPEB routes, with no major capacity constraints reported. U.S. exports continue to move without significant delays.
Schedule Reliability
Rail terminal delays in Canada have eased, although yard utilization remains high, and dwell times for imports still exceed 10 days.
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has ratified its new master contract, effective retroactively from October 1, 2024, to September 30, 2030. The agreement includes a 62% wage increase over six years, improved benefits, and limited automation allowances. The deal resolves previous disputes that caused significant disruptions in 2024.
Despite the labor agreement, terminal congestion persists in the New York/New Jersey region due to high import volumes, severe weather, and ongoing operational challenges. Berthing delays at Savannah ports extend up to seven days as they recover from winter storm impacts earlier in the year.
US Tariffs
The Guardian has noted that starting March 4, 2025, the U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. Additionally, an extra 10% tariff on Chinese goods, including items valued over $800, will go into effect the same day. A separate 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports is scheduled for March 12.
These measures are expected to increase consumer prices in the U.S., particularly for automobiles. Industry experts estimate vehicle costs could rise by an average of $3,000 due to higher parts costs linked to cross-border manufacturing.
Summary
March 2025 has brought major developments in global sea freight. Rates on the Far East Westbound (FEWB) trade continue to decline, with Shanghai to Genoa and Rotterdam routes seeing reductions. Weak demand has led to additional blank sailings, and MSC is reallocating megamax vessels to more profitable trades, such as Asia–West Africa. Despite a ceasefire in the Middle East, major carriers remain cautious about resuming Suez Canal transits, contributing to longer routes and extended transit times. Labor strikes at French and Dutch ports are causing substantial disruptions, forcing some cargo to be diverted to Antwerp, where congestion and delays are intensifying. Meanwhile, capacity cuts and blank sailings in Asia aim to stabilize plummeting rates. In North America, Trans-Pacific Eastbound rates are falling rapidly, while looming U.S. tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese goods threaten to increase supply chain costs. These factors combine to shape a challenging freight environment for March.
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