As we move through Q2, freight market trends for May 2025 reveal a global supply chain balancing between seasonal slowdown and growing uncertainty. From shifting air cargo rates in Asia to widespread blank sailings on Transpacific routes, the month has seen a mix of strategic carrier responses and demand-driven volatility. Space remains tight in key markets, rate pressure continues to fluctuate, and infrastructure upgrades in major ports are beginning to impact scheduling and costs. If you’re planning shipments this month, timing, flexibility, and early bookings are more crucial than ever.
Air Freight Overview
Asia Pacific
Tonnage fell 4% week-over-week. Rates dropped 3%; spot rates dipped by 6%. Traffic from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. fell for the fourth week running. On the upside, YoY export growth is strong from Vietnam (+42%), Taiwan (+30%), Thailand (+24%), and Japan (+12%). Australia-bound cargo: space into Sydney and Melbourne is limited ex-South China, with stable rates but expected congestion on connecting routes, and early bookings are advised. Contact us to discuss further.
North America
Tonnage dipped 2%. Rates rose by 4%, the only region to record an increase this week.
Central & South America
Tonnage saw a modest 3% increase. Rates remained steady.
Europe
Spot rates slipped by 6%. Tonnage also declined, contributing to a wider global dip.
Africa
Tonnage jumped 15% week-over-week. Spot rates declined by 6%.
Middle East & South Asia
Rates down 4% week-over-week. Spot rates fell 6%. YoY comparison: down 16%.
Air Freight Global Summary
Chargeable weight globally declined 6% week-over-week. Average global rate is now US$2.42/kg; spot rates sit at US$2.58/kg. According to World ACD, year on year global rates remain flat overall, but MESA is significantly down.
Ocean Freight: Port & Rate Update
Australia
Sydney’s Hutchinson Ports affected by May 1st union stop-work meeting. Ongoing port delays caused by extreme weather, including hailstorms and strong winds, have pushed schedules back significantly.
Europe
Rotterdam to Shanghai: down 2% to $481/40ft. Rotterdam to New York: down 1% to $2,109/40ft. Shanghai to Rotterdam: down 1% to $2,312/40ft. New York to Rotterdam: up 1% to $825/40ft. Europe to Oceania rates expected to remain stable in Q2.
Capacity Notes
CMA CGM and MSC’s direct space remains tight. Singapore and Port Klang relays have improved, though some delays persist. Rotterdam has been skipped on multiple sailings due to congestion; Antwerp has stepped in as an alternate hub. Antwerp-Bruges has surpassed Rotterdam in Q1 2025 throughput, up 6% YoY with over 3.43 million TEUs handled.
Asia Shipping Update
Labour Day factory closures in China are expected to affect cargo availability between May 6–14. Carriers have announced GRIs of USD 300–600 per 20’/40′ container, but rate acceptance may fall short due to typical May demand softness. YTD rates are tracking just below 10-year averages despite strong cargo volumes. Spot rate reductions of 10–20% are being applied by carriers like PIL, YML, and MSC on CAT and CA2 services. NEAX (A1X) carriers have adjusted prices downward by 10–15% to maintain competitiveness. PANDA service operators MSC/ZIM are aligning with lower-tier pricing to remain aggressive out of North China. Premium services from COSCO, ANL, and OOCL have narrowed pricing gaps while maintaining value-added service. Rates to Fremantle and Adelaide remain largely unchanged. LCL rates remain competitive. The Drewry WCI composite index decreased by 2%, reaching $2,157 per 40ft container—still 52% higher than pre-pandemic levels but 79% lower than the September 2021 peak.
USA & Canada Update
Rate Adjustments
Shanghai to New York: down 3% to $3,611. Shanghai to LA: down 2% to $2,617. Rates from Rotterdam to NY and LA to Shanghai are stable.
Capacity & Strategy
Carriers are planning GRIs and Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) for May, but implementation depends on whether demand rebounds. Southbound space to Oceania is available, though congestion exists at several transhipment hubs.
Volume Shifts
Shipments from China to North America have been reduced by 50%. Transpacific Eastbound (TPEB) services are being trimmed with smaller vessels and cancelled sailings. Major alliances (Ocean, Premier, MSC/ZIM) have suspended eight services in response to reduced demand. Over 25% of weekly loops have been blanked between late April and early May.
Reliability & Equipment
Equipment remains available across most major Asian ports. Isolated shortages reported in parts of Southeast Asia. Blank sailings have spiked due to ongoing U.S. tariffs and softening demand. East Coast blank capacity reached 42% the week of May 5; West Coast at 28% the week prior.
Final Thoughts
The freight market trends for May 2025 paint a picture of a shipping industry in recalibration mode. From declining global air tonnage to ocean carriers actively managing space and service levels, the focus is squarely on balancing supply with uncertain demand. Labour actions, seasonal closures, and geopolitical pressures continue to disrupt schedules, while port congestion remains an underlying friction point.
What’s clear is that success in this environment depends on flexibility and foresight. Rate movements, blank sailings, and infrastructure bottlenecks will test even the most well-prepared logistics teams. As the second half of Q2 progresses, businesses should stay proactive, maintain close contact with providers, and be prepared to act quickly as conditions shift.
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