The global freight market has entered September with mixed signals. While air cargo surged in July on the back of tariff frontloading, sea freight continues to feel the pressure of sliding rates, congested hubs, and ongoing schedule disruptions. Peak season dynamics are adding fuel to the volatility, with China–Australia lanes especially tight as retailers rush to secure Christmas shipments. In this month’s Freight Market Update September 2025, we cover the latest developments in air freight, container shipping reliability, Asia-Pacific trade lanes, as well as updates across the U.S., Europe, and Australia.
Air Freight
Global air cargo demand rebounded in July 2025, with volumes up 5.5% year-on-year after near-flat growth in June. The main driver was shippers accelerating loads ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs, causing a surge in capacity use. Asia-Pacific airlines led the charge with an 11.1% YoY increase, though the Asia–North America lane posted its third straight month of decline (-1.0%).
IATA reported that capacity grew by 3.9% YoY, but not fast enough to keep up, nudging global load factors up to 45.1%. This tightening, combined with tariff-related uncertainty, means Australian importers could face higher rates and tighter space in the months ahead.
Another shift impacting flows: the rollback of U.S. de minimis exemptions on small parcels. E-commerce volumes dipped sharply on the Asia–North America corridor, and Australian exporters targeting U.S. consumers should be ready for longer clearance times and higher costs.
Key takeaway: The air cargo market is regaining momentum, but ongoing U.S. trade policy changes will keep volatility high through Q4.
Global Shipping Overview
After six months of steady improvement, schedule reliability dipped in July to 65.2%, down 2.2 points month-on-month but still 13 points better than last year. Average vessel delays crept up to 4.68 days.
Among the major lines, Maersk led at 80.6% reliability, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 74%. On the other end, HMM trailed with 50.7%.
Alliance performance remains under review since the reshuffle earlier in the year. Gemini Cooperation topped July results with 92% reliability (all arrivals) and 89.6% (trade arrivals). MSC held mid-70% performance, while Premier Alliance lagged in the mid-50s. Ocean Alliance remained steady at 69.4%.
On pricing, Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) logged its 11th straight weekly decline, reflecting weaker demand across both U.S. and European lanes. Analysts expect further softening in 2H25 as tariff policies, capacity shifts, and Chinese vessel penalties weigh on the outlook.
Key takeaway: Reliability remains patchy, rates continue to slide, and supply–demand fundamentals are fragile heading into peak season.
Asia-Pacific & China–Australia Lanes
The second half of August showed how quickly rates can swing. Prices dipped early, surged mid-month, eased, and then spiked again as peak season pressure hit. By late August, space shortages in South China (Shenzhen, Ningbo, Shanghai) saw containers rolled across multiple sailings, pushing spot rates higher even before September began.
Three factors shaping September’s climb:
- Australia’s economic resilience – steady demand across mining, agriculture, and retail, with rate cuts adding further momentum.
- China–Australia ties strengthening – bilateral trade growth, from EVs to joint infrastructure, is lifting volumes.
- Christmas cargo rush – the hard deadline for store shelves ensures vessels are full through October.
Rate summary (1–14 September):
- Ex-China East Coast: USD 1,300–1,650/TEU, depending on service and speed.
- Ex-South East Asia: Singapore/Port Klang +6% MoM; Taiwan +15%; Vietnam/Thailand +10–12%. Rates are broadly between USD 1,050–1,900/TEU.
- West Coast (Fremantle/Adelaide): stable deployment, rates now USD 1,100/TEU.
Capacity: New biweekly services have launched, including ANL’s APR2 and Swire/PIL’s NAX/ANA into PNG and Queensland, plus multiple September extra loaders (MSC, PIL, TSL). However, blank sailings continue to disrupt schedules, with CAT, Wallaby, and CA2 services all reporting delays of 4–13 days.
Schedule reliability: remains highly challenging outside China. Even containers gated in advance are being rolled, while congestion in Singapore, Port Klang, and now Tanjung Pelapas is forcing transhipment diversions. Carrier communication is mixed, leaving shippers with limited visibility.
Key takeaway: Peak season strength is evident, but congestion and rolling risk are severe. Shippers must plan early and allow for extended lead times.
USA & Canada
Transpacific rates remain under pressure. In early September:
- Shanghai–Los Angeles: $2,332/FEU (-3%)
- Shanghai–New York: $3,291/FEU (-5%)
Retailers pulled forward cargo earlier this year to avoid tariff hikes, leaving summer volumes soft. Demand remains cautious as the U.S. economy slows. Capacity is broadly available (80–90% utilisation), and equipment shortages are easing.
Some carriers have signalled GRIs from mid-September, but with supply overhang, enforcement remains uncertain. PSS has been removed since August for the fixed market.
Key takeaway: Overcapacity and weak demand continue to weigh on the TPEB. Rates are expected to slide further unless Golden Week sparks a surprise surge.
Source: Drewry
Europe
Asia–Europe spot rates continued to soften into September:
- Shanghai–Rotterdam: $2,661/FEU (-10%)
- Shanghai–Genoa: $2,842/FEU (-5%)
The SCFI fell for the fourth straight week, now $1,668/TEU. While blank sailings in September will trim capacity by ~10%, early Golden Week factory closures in China may offset the tightening.
At destination, congestion remains problematic: Antwerp yard occupancy above 90% (dwell times ~7 days), Rotterdam/Hamburg delays 2–3 days, and South Med ports (Piraeus, Genoa, Valencia) facing 3–6 day delays.
Key takeaway: European lanes are oversupplied despite congestion. Carriers are cutting capacity, but rate pressure is set to persist.
Australia Terminals
- Melbourne: Webb Dock saw protests on 1 Sept, temporarily halting operations, though managed quickly.
- Brisbane: Hutchison faced limited industrial action; DP World experienced system outages and crane issues, causing short delays. Extra staff and manual handling were deployed to stabilise operations.
- Weather impacts: Strong winds across VIC, SA, and NSW caused temporary empty yard closures, affecting port rotations.
Meanwhile, Victoria released its Freight Plan 2025–2030, aiming to cut red tape, promote modal shifts, attract private investment, and enhance sustainability. The Port of Melbourne noted that this will be critical for aligning government and industry in building resilience. Key takeaway: Local disruptions have been manageable, but seasonal weather and policy shifts add complexity to planning.
Other Regional Updates
- Vietnam/China: Typhoon Kajiki forced mass evacuations and port closures in late August, disrupting sailings from Vietnam and Hainan.
- Chittagong: Vessel delays average 2–5 days, yard utilisation ~90%.
- Nhava Sheva (India): Red Alert flooding suspended vessel movements; significant road/rail congestion persists.
- Upcoming public holidays: Golden Week in China (1–8 Oct), Labour Day (6 Oct NSW/SA/QLD), King’s Birthday (29 Sept WA).
Conclusion
The freight market in September 2025 is showing two opposing forces: softening global demand pushing down rates, and peak season demand tightening space on key Asia–Australia and Asia–Europe lanes. Schedule reliability is under strain, air freight is heating up again, and geopolitical uncertainty continues to shape the outlook.
For Australian shippers, the message is clear: plan early, secure space ahead of Golden Week, and build flexibility into your logistics strategies.
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