Welcome to the final freight market update for 2024! As the year wraps up, the global supply chain landscape continues to evolve. From rising air freight rates to new sea routes and weather-related disruptions, this update will guide you through the latest trends and offer actionable tips to prepare for 2025. Let’s dive into the key freight market trends shaping December and beyond.
Air Freight
Capacity out of China is particularly tight, with e-commerce activity dominating shipping lanes. Shanghai airport is grappling with significant cargo backlogs, leaving many airlines overbooked and cargo stuck on standby for as many as three flights. Sydney (SYD) and Brisbane (BNE) routes are facing the greatest strain, while Shenzhen (SZX) offers relatively open capacity with competitive rates via CZ Airlines. CZ will also debut a new direct Perth (PER) service on November 28.
According to Air Cargo News, Global air freight rates remain elevated as the Q4 peak season drives demand. Spot rates have surged 25% YoY, with Asia-Pacific leading at $4.43 per kilo (up 6% WoW). Europe follows closely at $2.49 per kilo (+6% WoW), while rates from Central & South America (CSA) climbed 10% to $2.04 per kilo. North America also saw a steady 5% increase to $1.83 per kilo.
Looking ahead, the long-term forecast for global air cargo is promising. Boeing predicts air cargo traffic will double by 2043, with annual growth expected at 4.2%, driven by surging e-commerce demand and higher expectations for speedy delivery.
USA/Canada
Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) trade volumes remain strong, underpinned by concerns about potential tariff hikes and looming ILA strikes in early 2025. The Port of Long Beach hit a milestone in October, moving nearly 1 million TEUs—a record in its 113-year history.
Canada’s maritime supply chain faces disruptions as the Maritime Employers Association imposed a lockout on striking CUPE Local 375 workers at the Port of Montreal. This has an estimated $55M daily economic impact. The Canadian Industrial Relations Board has since mandated operations to resume, but delays will likely persist as the backlog clears.
On the brighter side, The Loadstar has reported that Ottawa has lifted its 2021 restrictions on Chinese flights to Canada, opening doors for increased air freight capacity between the two countries—a significant development as the trade lane ramps up.
Europe
Demand along the Asia-Europe trade route remains unusually high, prompting carriers to introduce general rate increases (GRIs) on November 1 and adjust FAK pricing mid-month. Freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam climbed 2% to $4,043 per FEU, with more increases expected as demand surges.
The Loadstar also reported that port congestion in Hamburg continues to disrupt schedules due to HHLA’s terminal modernisation efforts. Hapag-Lloyd has redirected calls to Wilhelmshaven to avoid delays. Meanwhile, French rail unions have announced strikes throughout December, compounding challenges during the holiday peak period.
Asia
Australia Port Delays
Congestion continues to plague Australian ports, causing extended delays.
| Patricks | DP World | Hutchinson | Vict | |
| Melbourne | 3 days | 3 days | n/a | 2 days |
| Sydney | 6 days | 6 days | 1 day | n/a |
| Brisbane | 2 days | 3 days | 1 day | n/a |
Please note terminal capacity for DP World in Melbourne and Brisbane has been advised to be at maximum utilisation, meaning delays are expected to continue.
Rates
Asian shipping lines are facing mounting pressure to fill vessels destined for Australia and New Zealand before Christmas. Many importers have postponed shipments to avoid delivery during the holiday period, triggering significant rate drops in late November. Premium services like A3 remain expensive, but more competitive options have emerged:
- AUN (Maersk): $3,900 per FEU
- NEAX, CAT/CA2, Panda Services: $4,000 per FEU
- Premium Services (A3S/A3C/JKN): $4,200 per FEU
Southeast Asia rates are also softening:
- MY/TH/VN/KR: $3,850 per FEU
- SG: $3,300 per FEU
Now is the ideal time to lock in lower freight rates ahead of the early Chinese New Year shutdown in January 2025. The Drewry WCI composite index remains stable at $3,440 per FEU—67% below the pandemic peak but 142% above the 2019 averages.
Capacity & Schedule Reliability
Port delays remain a challenge following Typhoon Kong-rey, with some CAT/CA2 vessels delayed by over 10 days. MSC’s newly announced Shanghai-Fremantle direct service (1,800 TEU capacity) will help alleviate pressure on West Coast Australia shipping routes.
Carriers are adjusting schedules to improve reliability:
- A3S: Slided by one week to COSCO Singapore 186S/186N.
- Blank Sailings: A3N (Dec 14 ex TAO), JKN (Dec 25 ex HKG), NEAX (Nov 29 ex YTN).
Maersk leads global rankings for schedule reliability, while ZIM and CMA CGM round out the top performers. Ports like Kaohsiung and Ningbo are still recovering from Typhoon Kong-rey, experiencing the sharpest delays.
Weather Impacts & Other News
Weather-related disruptions are impacting freight across the globe:
- Spain: Severe storms with heavy rainfall and winds exceeding 100 km/h have struck northern regions, causing localised flooding.
- Australia: Bushfires and storms across Victoria and NSW continue to disrupt logistics.
- Philippines: Typhoon Man-yi displaced thousands, creating significant transport challenges.
Planning ahead for 2025 is critical as Chinese New Year arrives earlier than usual, running January 28–February 4. Prolonged factory closures will ripple through production schedules, highlighting the need for early contract negotiations and strategic supply chain adjustments.
Summary
December freight market trends highlight the critical need for proactive planning and adaptability. From elevated air freight rates to port delays and rate fluctuations, staying informed will be key to navigating challenges and seizing opportunities in 2025.
We would like to finish this update by wishing you all a very safe and Merry Christmas, and a prosperous and healthy 2025! We thank you all for your support and we look forward to working with you next year.
TFG Global will be closed for all of the Christmas and New Year’s public holidays, however will be open on all other days over the holiday period.
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