March 2026 Freight Market Update Australia – March Madness in Global Freight

At a Glance

• Conflict involving Iran is disrupting shipping and aviation routes across the Middle East
• Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply
• Major shipping lines have suspended Gulf bookings and introduced war risk surcharges
• Global air freight capacity has declined due to airspace restrictions
• Ocean freight networks are still stabilising after Lunar New Year capacity reductions
• Freight costs and transit time volatility are expected through March and April
• Australian exporters and importers may face supply chain disruption and cost increases

Why Is Global Freight Disrupted in March 2026?

Global freight disruption in March 2026 is being driven primarily by the escalating conflict involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, combined with ocean carrier networks rebuilding after Lunar New Year capacity reductions.

Shipping lines have suspended Gulf bookings, introduced war risk surcharges, and rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. At the same time, Middle Eastern airspace restrictions have reduced global air freight capacity and forced airlines to reroute flights through alternative corridors.

Together these developments are creating volatility across global supply chains and increasing uncertainty for importers and exporters worldwide.

Middle East Conflict Reshaping Global Freight Networks

The most significant development influencing the March 2026 freight market update is the escalating conflict involving Iran and its impact on shipping movements across the Persian Gulf.

At the centre of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor, one of the most important maritime chokepoints in global trade.

Approximately twenty percent of the world’s seaborne crude oil passes through this narrow waterway between Iran and Oman.

Recent intelligence indicates that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped significantly compared with normal levels as shipping companies assess operational risk.

Several container shipping lines have responded by suspending bookings to certain Gulf ports or restricting cargo acceptance.

Some vessels are also being instructed to remain hundreds of nautical miles from the strait as a precaution.

Cargo already in transit may be diverted to alternative ports depending on security conditions.

For a deeper explanation of why this corridor is so critical to global logistics, see our analysis of how the Strait of Hormuz affects global shipping and supply chains.

War Risk Surcharges and Rising Freight Costs

The March 2026 freight market update is also defined by the rapid introduction of war risk surcharges across global shipping networks.

Shipping companies must insure vessels travelling through high risk regions. When geopolitical conflict escalates, war risk insurance premiums increase significantly.

These additional costs are typically passed on to cargo owners through emergency surcharges.

Several carriers have already implemented surcharges ranging from approximately USD 1,500 to more than USD 3,000 per container depending on cargo type and route.

At the same time energy markets are reacting to the potential disruption of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude oil prices have already moved higher as traders factor in possible supply constraints.

Rising oil prices increase bunker fuel costs for shipping lines and may lead to additional fuel surcharges in the coming weeks.

Air Freight Disruption Across Global Networks

Air freight networks are also experiencing significant disruption.

The Middle East hosts several of the world’s most important aviation transit hubs including Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi.

Airspace restrictions and temporary airport closures across parts of the region have disrupted these transit corridors.

Industry data suggests that between twelve and eighteen percent of global air cargo capacity has been affected.

Cargo that would normally transit through these hubs is being redirected through alternative gateways in Asia or Europe.

These routing changes increase transit times, reduce aircraft payload efficiency and increase operating costs.

For high value or time sensitive shipments, the result may be higher air freight rates and reduced scheduling flexibility.

Ocean Freight Networks Still Recovering After Lunar New Year

Another factor shaping the freight market in March is the uneven recovery of ocean shipping networks following Lunar New Year.

During February many carriers implemented blank sailings as factories across Asia temporarily shut down for the holiday period.

As production resumes across major manufacturing centres, shipping networks are gradually rebuilding their schedules.

However the recovery is uneven.

Different service strings and port rotations are returning at different speeds which can create temporary capacity imbalances.

Cargo deferred during February is still clearing through the system which may cause short term congestion or rolling cargo on certain services.

How the Iran Conflict Is Affecting Australian Supply Chains

Although the conflict is geographically distant from Australia, the ripple effects across global logistics networks can still influence Australian supply chains.

Australia exports approximately five billion Australian dollars worth of goods to Middle Eastern markets each year.

Agricultural products, livestock and food exports are particularly exposed to shipping disruptions affecting Gulf ports.

Energy markets are another important factor.

Because Australia imports a large portion of its refined fuel products, volatility in global oil markets can quickly influence domestic fuel costs and shipping prices.

Agricultural supply chains may also feel pressure.

The Middle East is a major exporter of fertilisers such as urea and ammonia. Disruption to production facilities or shipping routes could influence fertiliser availability as Australia approaches its autumn planting season.

Air cargo movements between Australia and Europe may also be affected as airlines reroute flights away from Middle Eastern transit hubs.

What Australian Importers and Exporters Should Do Now

During periods of geopolitical disruption preparation becomes critical.

Australian businesses involved in international trade should consider several practical steps.

Book shipments earlier

Shipping schedules may become less predictable as carriers adjust routes and capacity.

Maintain routing flexibility

Alternative ports or transshipment hubs may become necessary.

Review cargo insurance coverage

War risk clauses may activate even without formal declarations of war.

Communicate closely with freight partners

Freight forwarders receive real time updates from carriers and airlines and can provide the most current operational intelligence.

TFG Global Freight Intelligence

Global Freight Market Snapshot – March 2026

Geopolitical Risk

Conflict involving Iran is disrupting shipping movements across the Persian Gulf.

Ocean Freight Network Impact

Shipping lines are suspending Gulf bookings and rerouting vessels.

Air Freight Network Impact

Airspace restrictions across the Middle East are reducing global cargo capacity.

Energy and Fuel Markets

Rising oil prices are increasing bunker fuel costs.

Australian Supply Chain Exposure

Exports to Middle Eastern markets and fertiliser imports may face disruption.

Operational Outlook

Freight costs and transit times may remain volatile through March and April.

Supply Chain Signals

Global Freight Indicators – March 2026

Sources and Industry Intelligence

This freight market update incorporates information from multiple international logistics intelligence sources including:

• global carrier advisories
• freight analytics platforms
• international freight forwarder networks
• industry associations including IFCBAA
• shipping line operational notices

Summary for Supply Chain Teams

The March 2026 freight market update highlights three key drivers shaping global logistics.

1. Conflict involving Iran is disrupting shipping routes and aviation corridors.
2. War risk insurance and fuel costs are increasing freight pricing.
3. Ocean carrier networks are still stabilising after Lunar New Year capacity reductions.

Importers and exporters should expect continued volatility in freight costs, routing options and transit times during the coming weeks.

Conclusion

The March 2026 freight market update highlights how quickly geopolitical events can reshape global logistics networks.

The escalating conflict involving Iran has disrupted one of the most important shipping and aviation corridors in the world. Combined with the ongoing recovery of ocean carrier schedules following Lunar New Year, this has created a freight market characterised by volatility, operational adjustments and rising costs.

Shipping lines are already rerouting vessels, introducing war risk surcharges and reassessing service networks, while airlines continue to adjust global air cargo routes around Middle Eastern airspace restrictions.

For Australian importers and exporters, the key challenge is not simply higher freight costs, but greater uncertainty around transit times, routing options and supply chain reliability.

Maintaining flexibility, booking earlier and working closely with freight partners will be essential in the weeks ahead as global logistics networks continue to adjust to these disruptions.

At TFG Global we continue to monitor carrier advisories, industry intelligence and operational developments across global freight networks to ensure our clients receive the most accurate and up to date supply chain information available.

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Disclaimer

TFG Global makes reasonable efforts to ensure the information contained in this publication is accurate and current at the time of writing. However, freight markets, carrier operations, regulatory requirements, and supply chain conditions are subject to change and may vary by shipment, trade lane, carrier, port, or service.

This publication may include information sourced from third parties, industry reports, carrier updates, and publicly available data. While TFG Global considers these sources to be reliable, it does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such information, nor does it endorse any third party views or opinions.

The information provided is general in nature and does not constitute legal, financial, customs, or logistics advice. Nothing in this publication is intended to exclude, restrict, or modify any rights or remedies available under Australian Consumer Law.

To the extent permitted by law, TFG Global disclaims liability for any loss, damage, cost, or expense arising from reliance on this information, whether direct or indirect. Readers should seek advice specific to their circumstances before making freight or supply chain decisions.

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