The global freight market has entered October with a mix of opportunity and disruption. Golden Week closures, typhoon backlogs, and aggressive blank sailings are colliding with soft demand in the US and Europe, while Asia–Australia lanes face rate hikes and space shortages.
Air freight is showing resilience, but volatility remains the theme. For importers and exporters, the next eight weeks will be a test of preparation and flexibility.
Freight Market Update October 2025: At a Glance
- Spot rates on Asia–Australia remain volatile, with sharp rate wars pre-Golden Week and increases expected mid-October
- Global schedule reliability holding at 65–68% but weather events and blank sailings are creating persistent backlogs
- Typhoon Ragasa caused major delays in South China, compounded by Golden Week factory closures
- US and European lanes softening under weak demand and surplus capacity
- Air freight showing resilience, with Asia–Europe and tech-driven markets like Taiwan leading demand
Global Ocean Freight Overview
The global container market in October 2025 is being pulled in two directions. Weak demand is pushing down rates, while aggressive capacity management and seasonal disruptions are keeping pricing unpredictable. Drewry’s World Container Index fell again in late September, dropping 8% to USD 1,761 per 40ft. Shanghai–Rotterdam and Shanghai–Genoa slipped further, down 9% and 7% respectively. On the Transpacific, Shanghai–Los Angeles fell 10% to USD 2,311 per 40ft, while Shanghai–New York dropped 8% to USD 3,278 per 40ft. Carriers have cut back capacity through blank sailings to stem losses, particularly around Golden Week, with roughly 544,000 TEU withdrawn across the Transpacific and Asia–Europe routes in September. Schedule reliability has stabilised since May between 65–68%. Maersk leads at 76.4%, while Hapag-Lloyd sits just above 72%. Wan Hai posted the lowest reliability among the top carriers at 53.3%. Average delays remain around 4.5–5 days, showing some improvement but still well below pre-pandemic performance.
Europe Market Conditions
European lanes remain under pressure from weak retail demand, high inventories, and cautious importers.
Rates:
September’s GRI on Asia–Europe was withdrawn due to a lack of demand. Spot rates on North Europe to US East Coast average USD 1,838–1,911 per 40ft, down about 25% from January.
Capacity:
Around 25% of FEWB sailings are being blanked in Weeks 40–41, though this is less aggressive than in past years. Supply remains sufficient.
Congestion:
Conditions are easing in some hubs, but pressure remains in southern Europe. Valencia has three-day average delays, Gioia Tauro is at three days, and Piraeus faces some of the worst congestion in the region with five-day waits. In northern Europe, Hamburg, Rotterdam, and Antwerp continue to struggle with weather, strikes, and terminal bottlenecks. Yard utilisation levels remain high, often between 75% and 90%.
US Market Conditions
Transpacific routes softened sharply in late September. Earlier GRIs and PSS-driven increases have now evaporated as carriers withdrew rate hikes in the face of weak demand. Oversupply remains the defining factor on both East and West Coast services. The Premier Alliance has already suspended one Transpacific service, with other alliances trimming capacity to stabilise pricing. Spot rates remain volatile, with carriers signalling further blank sailings into November. Operations at the Port of Long Beach were disrupted by the ZIM Mississippi container incident, causing temporary holds on cargo pending investigation. Otherwise, US ports remain relatively stable with adequate space availability.
Asia and Golden Week Disruptions
China’s Golden Week holiday, extended this year from 1–8 October due to the overlap with the Mid-Autumn Festival, is creating severe scheduling pressures. Bookings for sailings before the holiday closed weeks early, and carriers rolled cargo into post-October sailings. Rates were largely frozen until mid-October, when significant GRIs are expected, particularly on China–Australia lanes (+USD 500/TEU forecast).
South China is a hotspot. Typhoon Ragasa shut down key terminals in Yantian, Shekou, Nansha, and Hong Kong between 22–25 September, creating backlogs that are still unwinding. Trucking turnaround times stretched from one day to three days. Combined with factory shutdowns for Golden Week, this has left a sizeable pool of rolled containers expected to crowd post-holiday sailings.
Northeast Asia Rates
Competitive services are holding rates between USD 1,100–1,200 per TEU from base ports, while Qingdao pricing is slightly higher due to stronger demand. Mid-tier alliances are sitting around USD 1,150–1,300 per TEU but are heavily overbooked to prepare for post-holiday roll pools. Premium services, particularly the A3 consortium, remain higher at USD 1,400–1,450 per TEU, with stable demand and little downward pressure.
Southeast Asia and Australia
Rates from Southeast Asia into Australia remain steady at USD 1,000–1,300 per TEU. Congestion continues in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore, with yard utilisation levels averaging above 85–90% in some hubs. Average vessel waiting times are one to two days, with feeder and barge delays extending transit times. In Australia, terminals are facing moderate disruption. Sydney and Fremantle are experiencing 24–48 hour delays from weather and vessel bunching. Brisbane, Melbourne, and Adelaide are seeing shorter delays, usually under 24 hours.
Port Reliability and Blank Sailings
Globally, 11% of sailings were cancelled between Weeks 39–43, with 68% of these concentrated around Golden Week. Asia–Europe and Transpacific trades saw the heaviest withdrawals. In Australia, 17 out of 221 scheduled sailings were blanked in October, roughly 8% of planned departures. Shippers should continue to expect rolled cargo, schedule changes, and sudden service withdrawals across October and November.
Air Freight Market Update
Air freight is holding steady with modest growth. Global average spot rates sit at USD 2.44/kg, about 5% below last year. Asia–Europe volumes grew 6% year-on-year, with China posting a 3% increase ahead of Golden Week. Asia–US remains soft, except Taiwan, where strong semiconductor exports have pushed rates up by 11% year-on-year. Typhoon disruptions and Golden Week closures have added temporary volatility, tightening capacity out of China. Globally, capacity expanded 3.7% year-on-year in August, but yields softened by 2%. Belly capacity now accounts for more than half of all cargo tonnage, providing some buffer against freighter constraints. For Australia, this means continued access to air options, especially for high-value and time-sensitive cargo, though shippers should expect higher demand and pricing pressure through late October.
Geopolitical and Policy Watch
Trade policy and security risks continue to influence shipping. US trade actions against China-built vessels may impact capacity deployments in the months ahead. Security threats in the Red Sea, including Houthi-linked attacks, remain a concern for carriers. On the regulatory front, the IMO is moving toward net-zero by 2050, with interim goals for 2030 and 2040, alongside the introduction of global fuel standards by 2027. These developments will shape long-term fleet investment, fuel use, and service costs.
Outlook for Late October and November
The second half of October will be characterised by tight space and upward rate pressure as carriers push through GRIs and roll over pre-Golden Week backlogs. Expect:
- Asia–Australia GRIs of USD 300–600 per TEU
- Post-holiday demand surges, pushing utilisation back to near-full
- Continued blank sailings to balance supply with weak demand on other trades
- Strong air freight demand through November from e-commerce and perishables
Shippers should build 7–10 day buffers, book space three to four weeks in advance, and diversify across carriers and service types to mitigate risk.
Conclusion
The Freight Market Update October 2025 highlights a complex environment for shippers. Golden Week, typhoon recovery, and capacity cuts are tightening Asia–Australia lanes, while weak demand continues to pressure rates in Europe and the US. Air freight provides some relief, but space remains limited and costs are climbing into November. Careful planning, early booking, and close coordination with forwarders are critical for navigating what will likely be the most volatile weeks of the year. Contact us to discuss all of your freight forwarding needs at any time.
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