Freight Market Update November 2025

Freight Market Update November 2025 | Rates and Capacity at a glance

Peak season has rolled from October into November, and the Asia to Australia freight market remains under heavy strain.

Space is the key constraint, not price.
Carriers are holding firm on rates through tight capacity management and blank sailings.
The World Container Index November 2025 shows stabilising and slightly rising rate levels.
Congestion continues at Singapore and North Asia feeder hubs, with extended delays and limited transhipment flexibility.
Air freight rates out of North Asia are climbing again as e-commerce and electronics exports surge.

For Australian importers and exporters, the same rule from the Freight Market Update October 2025 applies: book early, communicate deadlines clearly, and build buffers for pre-Christmas and pre-Chinese-New-Year arrivals.

Global Ocean Overview

The global freight market is transitioning from softness to stabilisation. After four months of decline, the World Container Index November 2025 rose again to USD 1,746 per 40ft.

Key trends:

Asia–US and Asia–Europe routes continue to firm as carriers push GRIs and restrict capacity.
Schedule reliability remains in the mid-sixties, averaging 65.4%.
Average vessel delays sit near five days.
Most reliable carriers (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd) post around 72–76%, while others linger between 55–65%.
Typhoons, industrial action, and Singapore transhipment congestion are capping further improvements.

In summary, Freight Market Update November 2025 | Rates and Capacity confirms:

The rate softening cycle has ended.
Carriers are defending yield through blank sailings and capacity discipline.
Early bookings now matter more than rate negotiation.

Global Air Freight Snapshot

The air freight market has regained strength heading into November.

Week-42 tonnages rose 6% week-on-week, led by a 14% surge from Asia-Pacific origins.
North Asia air freight rates jumped, with China to US spot climbing to nearly USD 4.90/kg, the highest since mid-April.
Average global rates ticked up 3% to USD 2.48/kg.

What’s driving this:

E-commerce and semiconductor exports.
Reduced belly capacity on some passenger networks.
Seasonal restocking before Black Friday and Christmas.

For Australian importers:

Expect steady to rising rates through late November.
Secure Blocked Space Agreements (BSA) where possible.
For urgent freight, combine sea-air routing to protect delivery dates.

These signals extend from the Freight Market Update October 2025, which already forecasted a tightening air cargo environment across APAC.

APAC Overview

Across Asia Pacific, the pattern is clear: tight space, rising rates, and schedule pressure.

Key regional dynamics:

arriers continue to push GRIs in early November, typically USD 300–600 per TEU.
Singapore and North Asia remain choke points, reducing effective capacity.
Weather events and lingering congestion from Typhoon Fengshen and Ragasa continue to impact operations.

Takeaways for shippers:

Treat November as a “book-early or miss-the-window” month.
Prioritise space certainty over cost savings.
Diversify between premium and mid-tier carriers to reduce rollover risk.

South East Asia to Australia

The South East Asia to Australia corridor has firmed significantly.

Market summary:

GRIs implemented across October–November at USD 200–300 per TEU.
Rates up 10–15% from early October across most origins.
Delays:
- Singapore and Laem Chabang: up to 5–7 days.
- Port Klang, Manila, and Vietnam: 1–3 days.
Reefer and 20ft equipment shortages persist.
Air freight ex-Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur stable but tightening.

Outlook:

Rates will stay elevated through November as carriers manage space and fill pre-Christmas departures.
Follow the same guidance issued in the Freight Market Update October 2025, which was to book early, use mixed service tiers, and avoid reliance on a single carrier network.

North East Asia to Australia

The China–Australia trade lane is at full capacity. Rates and congestion continue to mirror patterns reported in the Freight Market Update October 2025.

Rate bands (1–15 November 2025):

Budget services: USD 1,600–1,750/TEU.
Mid-tier: USD 1,750–1,850/TEU.
Premium: USD 1,950+/TEU, offering guaranteed uplift and roll protection.

Conditions on the ground:

Singapore transhipment congestion and South China backlog continue.
Space tightening: Vessels are sailing overbooked, with regular port omissions.
Fremantle remains the most affected port by skipped calls.
Typhoon-related disruptions still cause ripple effects in sailing schedules.

Action points:

Confirm bookings early, especially for December arrivals.
Allow 7–10 days of buffer for shipments transiting Singapore or Port Klang.
Hold alternate service options for time-critical freight.

Australia Port Operations

Australian ports remain pressured by weather, congestion, and the Asia to Australia peak season.

Sydney (SYD):

Most volatile east-coast port.
DP World outage (30 Oct) caused minor backlog; additional stop-work event scheduled for late November.
Strong winds and vessel bunching remain ongoing risks.

Melbourne (MEL):

High yard density and slower truck turnaround times.
Labour shortages during public holidays have compounded congestion.

Brisbane (BNE):

Relatively stable, though terminal yards are nearing capacity at times.

Fremantle (FRE):

Skipped calls remain common due to rotation changes.

Adelaide (ADL):

Still the most reliable port for consistent on-time delivery.

National trends:

Reefer and 20ft containers remain tight.
Average delays: 4–8 days versus global average of 4.5 days.
Empty parks across southern states closing intermittently due to high winds.

USA and Canada

The Transpacific market continues its controlled rebound.

Spot rates: USD 2,100/FEU (West Coast) and USD 3,100/FEU (East Coast).
Drivers: Carrier discipline, not demand growth.
Blank sailings: 10–12% of scheduled departures.
Utilisation: Hovering around 84–86%.

Guidance:

Secure space early.
Expect carriers to defend current rate levels through December.
Align with reliable service tiers rather than chasing discount freight.

Europe

Europe remains split between operational strain and soft demand.

Current conditions:

Yard utilisation: Antwerp and Rotterdam above 80%.
Storm disruptions (Benjamin and subsequent systems) caused 2–6 day port delays.
Labour unrest adds recovery lags.
Eastbound capacity (Asia to Europe) ample but managed at 80–85% utilisation.

On Europe–Australia rotation:

An 18th vessel added mid-October restored weekly rhythm disrupted by Cape of Good Hope reroutes.
Goal: improve stability, not expand capacity.

Summary:

The region remains a reliability challenge rather than a pricing challenge, echoing insights from the Freight Market Update October 2025.

Indian Subcontinent

Key highlights:

Colombo: Heavy congestion and productivity loss.
Chittagong: New tariffs raised handling and storage fees; base rates increased.
Dhaka ICD: Dwell time over 20 days (30+ for overweight containers).
India: New Noida Airport cargo terminal to boost efficiency in Delhi’s air freight system.

Australia and UAE Free Trade Agreement

Shippers trading between Australia and the United Arab Emirates are already benefiting from smoother customs procedures under the recently formalised Australia–United Arab Emirates Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). From 1 October 2025, goods entering the UAE from Australia are eligible for preferential customs rates, with most products now entering duty-free. The agreement also allows for simplified Certificate of Origin requirements, which reduces processing time and paperwork for exporters.

This milestone strengthens the growing trade relationship between the two nations and opens further opportunities for Australian exporters in sectors such as food and agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Businesses should review the ABF CEPA guidance to confirm eligibility and duty classifications.

Geopolitics, Policy, and Sustainability

Key influences:

Red Sea security incidents pushing more routings around the Cape.
US port fee policies tied to vessel build origin causing redeployments.
IMO 2050 Net Zero roadmap: new fuel standards from 2027, well-to-wake accounting.
Australian Transport & Infrastructure Net Zero Plan aligns with 62–70% emissions cuts by 2035.

Reliability and Blank Sailings

Global blank sailings (Weeks 39–44):

Roughly 11% of sailings cancelled.
Asia–Europe and Transpacific routes account for nearly 80% of cuts.
Asia–Australia: 8% blanked in October, continuing through November.

Shipper strategies:

Confirm vessels weekly.
Maintain short-term rate agreements.
Build dual-carrier fallback options for critical cargo.

Practical Playbook for November

Book November sailings early — especially 1–3 weeks ahead of departure.
Add 7–10 days buffer for South China, Singapore, and Laem Chabang.
Tier SKUs:
- Premium: launch-critical goods.
- Mid-tier: replenishment.
- Budget: only with flexibility.
Lock reefer and 20ft equipment early.
Pre-lodge customs and biosecurity docs.
Pre-book air uplift out of Hong Kong and North China.

Outlook

As we move through the final weeks of November, the Freight Market Update November 2025 | Rates and Capacity points to one clear reality: the global supply chain is deep into peak season, and the pressure is unlikely to ease until after Christmas.

Space will remain tight across all major trade lanes, particularly from Asia to Australia, where demand continues to outpace available vessel slots. Carriers are holding firm on their capacity controls, and any last-minute bookings will come at a premium. Importers chasing pre-Christmas and pre-Chinese New Year arrivals should expect to compete for space, with limited room for negotiation.

Rates are expected to stay steady or increase through the remainder of the month. Carriers are maintaining pricing discipline through selective blank sailings and schedule adjustments. While the market is not experiencing large spikes, the days of quick bargains and short-term rate dips have passed for now. The World Container Index November 2025 suggests that the industry has entered a new period of firm but stable pricing as carriers protect yield and manage utilisation.

Congestion and weather disruptions remain unpredictable. Singapore and North Asian hubs are still working through transhipment bottlenecks, while Australia’s east coast ports continue to be challenged by strong winds, vessel bunching, and reduced labour availability. Weather-related delays, industrial actions, and the lingering impact of earlier typhoons are creating schedule variations that make planning more difficult.

On the Asia to Australia trade lane, these pressures are expected to continue into December. High seasonal demand, limited equipment, and port congestion will keep this corridor the most constrained in the region. Forward planning, flexibility, and accurate forecasting will be the deciding factors for on-time arrivals.

In Europe, conditions are more stable but reliability remains the key concern. Rates are holding firm, yet port congestion, weather-related stoppages, and inland transport limitations continue to affect delivery schedules. For now, this market remains a reliability challenge rather than a pricing one.

Air freight continues to perform strongly, particularly for high-value and time-sensitive cargo. Increased volumes in e-commerce, electronics, and perishables are keeping North Asia air freight rates elevated through Cyber Week. A gradual softening is expected as December approaches, but space will remain limited until post-holiday demand slows.

Overall, the Freight Market Update November 2025 | Rates and Capacity reinforces the importance of early planning, service diversification, and operational flexibility. Shippers who plan ahead, communicate forecasted volumes early, and remain agile with routing and carrier choices will navigate the remaining peak weeks of 2025 more effectively than those waiting for the market to ease.

Looking Ahead to December 2025

December is expected to bring a short-lived window of stability before the next round of Lunar New Year planning begins. Carriers are likely to maintain tight control of capacity through the end of the year, while shippers focus on clearing remaining 2025 volumes and preparing for the traditional pre-CNY surge in January. Weather will continue to pose a risk across the Asia-Pacific region, and with global demand showing early signs of recovery, rates may stay firm into early 2026. The Freight Market Update December 2025 will focus on how quickly capacity resets after peak season and what early indicators suggest for the first quarter of the new year.

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